Introduction: The Wait for 2026’s COLA
Every fall, millions of retirees, survivors, and people with disabilities eagerly await one number — the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). It determines how much their monthly benefit will increase in the coming year.
But in 2025, that announcement has been pushed back for the first time in more than a decade. The Social Security Administration (SSA) confirmed that the 2026 COLA will now be revealed on October 24, roughly two weeks later than usual, because of federal government delays tied to the budget standoff and temporary shutdown.
For seniors counting on every dollar, this delay raises understandable questions: Why the wait? How much will the increase be? And what can you do to plan ahead?
Let’s break down what’s happening — and what it means for your wallet.
What Is the COLA and How It’s Normally Announced
The Cost-of-Living Adjustment helps Social Security payments keep pace with inflation. Each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to calculate the increase.
Traditionally:
- COLA figures are released around October 10–12.
- The new payment amount starts showing in January.
- The increase affects about 72 million Americans, including retirees, SSI recipients, and some government pensioners.
But this year, the final inflation data for September — which completes the COLA formula — couldn’t be released on schedule because of the partial federal government shutdown. That caused a ripple effect through all federal statistical agencies, including the BLS.
Why the 2026 COLA Was Delayed
According to the SSA, the delay stems from budget gridlock in Congress that briefly shut down “non-essential” federal operations. The CPI-W data used for the calculation was temporarily frozen.
As a result:
- The BLS could not publish the September inflation report on time.
- The Social Security Administration had to postpone its official COLA announcement until the data becomes available — now expected on October 24, 2025.
The SSA emphasized that this delay won’t affect payment schedules or benefit delivery, only the timing of the announcement.
Still, for millions of retirees watching rising grocery and healthcare costs, the uncertainty is stressful.
What Experts Expect for the 2026 Increase
Although the final number isn’t yet official, most analysts expect the 2026 COLA to land between 2.6% and 2.8% — far lower than the record 8.7% increase seen in 2023, and modest compared to the 3.2% bump for 2024.
The main reason:
Inflation has cooled in most categories except housing, insurance, and healthcare, which remain stubbornly high. The formula, which uses July, August, and September data, suggests a middle-ground increase.
Estimated average monthly benefit increases (based on 2.8%):
- Retired worker: +$59 per month
- Retired couple (both receiving benefits): +$95 per month
- Disabled worker: +$48 per month
These are projections — the actual numbers could shift slightly once the BLS releases the official CPI-W figures on October 24.
What This Delay Means for You
- No Change in Payment Timing
You’ll still receive your January 2026 benefit with the new COLA applied — the announcement delay won’t change that. - SSA Letters Will Arrive Later
Normally, benefit increase letters arrive by early December. Expect them mid-December this year instead. - Watch for Scams
The SSA will never email, text, or call you asking for banking information to “apply” the new COLA.
Fraudsters often use news of changes or delays to trick seniors — if you get suspicious messages, report them to oig.ssa.gov. - Budget Cautiously
If you rely on your COLA bump to cover bills or Medicare premiums, assume a modest 2–3% increase when forecasting your 2026 budget.
Inflation, Seniors, and the “COLA Gap”
Even with COLA adjustments, many seniors find that Social Security isn’t fully keeping up with real-world costs.
- Food inflation remains 18% higher than in 2021.
- Medicare Part B premiums are projected to rise again in 2026.
- Housing and property insurance costs continue to outpace COLA increases.
This gap means that retirees often lose buying power year after year — a long-term challenge that’s prompting advocates to push for a more senior-focused inflation index, such as the CPI-E (Consumer Price Index for the Elderly).
Until that happens, planning and awareness are key.
Smart Ways to Prepare for 2026
Here are a few practical steps you can take now:
✅ Review your Medicare plan early.
- Open Enrollment runs Oct 15 – Dec 7.
- Even a small switch could offset rising premium costs.
✅ Look into state assistance programs.
- In New Jersey, programs like PAAD (Prescription Assistance for the Aged and Disabled) and Lifeline Utility Assistance help cover medication and utility costs.
✅ Check your Social Security account online.
- Visit ssa.gov/myaccount to verify your payment history and set up text/email alerts.
✅ Watch inflation trends.
- Use the BLS CPI reports to stay ahead of next year’s changes.
✅ Avoid unnecessary debt.
- Try to reduce credit card balances before the end of the year — interest rates remain high.
Looking Ahead: What Happens on October 24
When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September’s CPI-W data, the SSA will immediately publish the official 2026 COLA. You’ll see it:
- On SSA.gov (front page banner)
- Through the SSA’s verified X (Twitter) and Facebook pages
- Reported widely by credible news outlets like AARP, Reuters, and MarketWatch
At that point, you’ll know your exact benefit increase for January 2026.
Key Takeaways
- The 2026 COLA announcement is delayed until October 24, 2025 due to the federal shutdown.
- Expect a 2.6%–2.8% increase based on current inflation trends.
- Your January 2026 payment will still arrive on schedule.
- Always check official SSA channels for updates — never respond to unsolicited “COLA confirmation” emails or calls.